OPEC releases 2017 view on world oil trends

By Staff | November 14, 2017

It’s been 10 years since OPEC released its first World Oil Outlook. Earlier this month OPEC released its 2017 version, highlighting the reality that the oil industry is multi-faceted. This year’s outlook helps to show the impact of the ongoing rebalancing process on the medium-term outlook, why or how oil will remain the fuel of choice for the foreseeable future and how supply and security of oil demand are linked to the outlook for oil.

You can view the full, interactive version here: https://woo.opec.org/

Or, check out the main highlights from report below.

-Total primary energy demand has been revised upward by 1.7 million barrels a day compared to the WOO 2016 report.

-Total primary energy demand is set to increase by 35 percent in the period to 2040.

-Oil is expected to remain the fuel with the largest share in the energy mix throughout the forecast period to 2040.

-There is no expectation for peak oil demand over the forecast period to 2040.

-Developing countries will continue to lead demand growth, increasing by almost 24 mb/d to reach 67 mb/d by 2040.

-Long-term demand growth comes mainly from the road transportation, petrochemicals and aviation sectors.

-Oil demand in the road transportation sector is driven by the increasing car fleet in developing countries and declining oil use per vehicle in the OECD region.

-The car fleet is anticipated to change smoothly over the forecast period. In the passenger car segment, electric vehicles are estimated to represent 12 percent of the car fleet by 2040.

-Non-OPEC liquids supply is forecast to increase from 57 mb/d in 2016 to 62 mb/d in 2022, but in the long-term non-OPEC liquids output is anticipated to see a decline, dropping to 60.4 mb/d by 2040, with U.S. tight oil estimated to peak just after 2025.

-The demand for OPEC crude is anticipated to expand to 41.4 mb/d by 2040.

-The share of OPEC liquids in total global liquids supply is estimated to increase to 46 percent by 2040, from 40 percent in 2016.

-Around half of the estimated refining capacity additions are expected in the Asia-Pacific, which is projected to add 9.5 mb/d by 2040.

-Capacity rationalization remains a long-term requirement, with some 6 to 8 mb/d of closures indicated as needed by 2040 if refining regions are to maintain utilization rates of at least 80 percent.

-Global crude movements are expected to increase by around 6.5 mb/d between 2016 and 2040, mostly supported by Asia-Pacific imports and Middle East exports.

-In the period to 2040, the required global oil sector investment is estimated at $10.5 trillion.